Winter Power Outage Survival: What NOAA's El Niño Outlook Means for You
Updated: 2 days ago
NOAA's 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook is out, and the headline is El Niño. Released October 15, the outlook says a very strong El Niño will likely shift the jet stream south and east this winter (December through February). That tilts the odds toward stormier, wetter weather across the southern U.S. and up the East Coast, while much of the northern tier leans warmer than average. For a lot of households, that means more rain, ice and wind storms in places that don't usually plan for them, and storms like that are a common cause of power outages. This guide covers winter power outage survival from start to finish: what the outlook does and doesn't say, how to stay warm without power, how to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning, and how to keep your pipes from freezing.
Quick answer: if the power goes out in winter, move everyone into one small room, close off the rest of the house, and dress in layers with hats and warm socks, even indoors. Never run a generator, grill or camp stove inside, and never heat your home with a gas oven or stovetop. Use battery-backup CO alarms, let faucets on exposed pipes drip, and if your home gets too cold to stay safely, go to a warming center or a friend with power.
What NOAA's Winter Outlook Actually Says
Here's what the official forecasts say. We've stuck to NOAA's own wording and haven't added anything to it.
Wetter than average is favored across the southern tier, from the Southwest to the Southeast, and along the East Coast, according to NOAA's release.
Warmer than average is favored for northern California, the Pacific Northwest, the Midwest, the Mississippi Valley and much of the East. Near-normal temperatures are most likely for parts of the Southeast, including Florida.
Drier than average is favored for parts of the northern Rockies and the Great Lakes.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center's prognostic discussion describes the El Niño as "very strong" and still strengthening, with an El Niño advisory expected to continue through spring 2027.
National Weather Service director Ken Graham said a very strong El Niño "tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South" and that "now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter."
What's confirmed and what isn't
Confirmed: NOAA's outlook favors a stormier, wetter South and East and a warmer North for December through February. NOAA also says it will use "Particularly Dangerous Situation" wording in some Blizzard Warnings and Ice Storm Warnings this season for high-confidence storms of historic severity.
Not in the outlook: snowfall totals, the timing of any single storm, or a forecast of power outages. NOAA says plainly that its seasonal outlook "does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations," because snow is generally not predictable more than a week out. A "warmer than average" winter is a seasonal average, not a promise that you won't get a hard freeze. The outlook will be updated on November 19.
What This Means for Your Preps
You don't need to panic over a seasonal outlook. Use it as a nudge to get ready before the first storm, not during it. A few practical takeaways:
If you live in the South or along the East Coast, plan for wet, heavy snow, freezing rain and wind. Ice on trees and lines is what knocks out power, and many homes in milder climates have little backup for staying warm.
If you live up north, a warmer-than-average forecast doesn't cancel winter. Keep your normal cold-weather preps in place.
Everywhere, winter storms can, in Ready.gov's words, "last a few hours or several days" and "cut off heat, power and communication services." The goal is to be able to stay home safely for several days without power.
The rest of this guide is the plan, in the order you'd actually use it.
Step 1: Stay Warm When the Power Goes Out
Many furnaces need electricity to run, including most gas furnaces, because the blower, igniter and thermostat all use power. So when the power goes out in a winter storm, your heat often goes out with it. Here's how to hold onto the warmth you have.
Pick one warm room
Choose one interior room with few windows, ideally on the sunny side of the house, and move everyone there. Close the doors to rooms you aren't using. Hang blankets over doorways and cover windows at night to slow heat loss. During the day, open curtains on sun-facing windows to let in free heat, then close them at sunset. A small room full of people stays warmer than a big house with everyone spread out.
Layer up, indoors too
Dress like you're going outside: a base layer that wicks sweat, an insulating middle layer and a windproof outer layer. Hats and warm socks matter, and so do staying dry and not overheating while you work. Our cold-weather layering guide walks through the full military-style system. A warm mid layer like the Rothco Spec Ops Tactical Fleece Jacket (adult sizes S through 2XL) works well under a shell, or on its own inside a cold house.
Insulate your sleeping space
Nights are the hardest part of a winter outage. Sleep in the warm room, off the floor if you can, with blankets underneath you as well as on top. Cold ground pulls heat out of your body fast. Compact emergency blankets add a backup layer for every person. Keep a Rothco 2-Person Polarshield Survival Blanket or a Rothco Polarshield Sleeping Bag Survival Blanket in your home kit and your car. They're cheap, small, and easy to stash in a drawer.
Eat, drink and keep moving
Your body makes heat by burning food, so eat regular meals and snacks and drink water, even if you don't feel thirsty. Shelf-stable calories that need no cooking are ideal. A Datrex 2400 Calorie Emergency Food Ration packs 12 individually portioned bars totaling 2,400 calories into one compact vacuum-sealed pack. Light activity, like walking around the room, also helps you warm up. Just don't work up a sweat, because damp clothes make you colder.
Know when to leave
If your home gets too cold to stay safely, go somewhere warm. That could be a friend or relative with power, or a public warming center or shelter. Check your city or county emergency management website and local news for locations. Older adults, babies, and people with medical conditions get into trouble faster in the cold. The CDC recommends that anyone over 65 keep an easy-to-read thermometer inside, because our ability to feel temperature changes decreases with age.
Step 2: Carbon Monoxide Safety Is Not Optional
The risk of carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning goes up during winter outages, when people bring generators, grills and camp stoves indoors to stay warm or cook. This is the single most important section of this guide.
The CDC calls CO "an odorless, colorless gas that kills without warning." It reports that each year more than 400 Americans die from unintentional CO poisoning not linked to fires, more than 100,000 visit an emergency department, and more than 14,000 are hospitalized.
The hard rules
These come straight from the CDC and Ready.gov:
Never use a generator inside your home or garage, even with doors and windows open. Run it outside, more than 20 feet from windows, doors and vents.
Never heat your home with a gas oven or stovetop. Ready.gov notes this also raises the risk of fires and burns.
Never burn charcoal indoors, and never use a portable gas camp stove indoors.
Never run a car or truck in an attached garage, even with the garage door open.
Install battery-operated or battery-backup CO detectors near every sleeping area. Test them, check the batteries, and replace detectors on the manufacturer's schedule.
Know the symptoms
The CDC lists headache, dizziness, weakness, upset stomach, vomiting, chest pain and confusion as the most common symptoms, often described as "flu-like." People who are asleep or have been drinking can die before they notice any symptoms. If several people, or people and pets, feel sick at the same time indoors, think CO.
Call 911 if: your CO alarm sounds, or anyone has these symptoms while a fuel-burning device is running. Get everyone outside into fresh air first, then call. Don't go back in until responders say it's safe. This guide is general safety information, not medical advice.
Fireplaces, wood stoves and space heaters
If you plan to heat with a fireplace or wood stove, the CDC advises having your chimney or flue inspected every year, installing a smoke detector and battery-operated CO detector near the area you'll heat, and keeping a multipurpose dry-chemical fire extinguisher nearby. If you use any fuel-burning heater, make sure it's rated for indoor use and follow the maker's instructions exactly. For electric space heaters, once the power comes back, the NFPA advises keeping anything that can burn at least 3 feet away.
Step 3: Keep Your Pipes From Freezing
A burst pipe can turn a cold, inconvenient outage into a flooded house. Water expands when it freezes, and the American Red Cross explains that this expansion can break metal or plastic pipes "no matter the strength of a container."
Which pipes freeze first
According to the Red Cross, the pipes most likely to freeze are outdoor hose bibs and sprinkler lines, supply pipes in unheated spaces like basements, crawl spaces, attics, garages and kitchen cabinets, and pipes that run along poorly insulated exterior walls.
Before the cold hits
Drain and store garden hoses, close the inside valves that feed outdoor faucets, and open the outdoor faucets so leftover water can drain.
Insulate exposed pipes with pipe sleeves or UL-listed heat tape, and add insulation to attics, basements and crawl spaces.
Find your main water shutoff valve now and make sure everyone in the house knows where it is and how to turn it. If a pipe bursts, closing it quickly limits the damage.
During a cold snap or outage
Let cold water drip from faucets served by exposed pipes. The Red Cross notes that even a trickle helps prevent freezing.
Open kitchen and bathroom cabinet doors so warmer air reaches the plumbing. Move cleaners and chemicals out of reach of kids and pets.
Keep the garage door closed if water lines run through the garage.
If you'll be away, the Red Cross says to leave the heat on and set no lower than 55°F.
If a pipe freezes
If only a trickle comes out when you turn on a faucet, suspect a frozen pipe. Keep the faucet open and apply gentle heat with a hair dryer, an electric heating pad, or towels soaked in hot water. Never use a blowtorch, kerosene or propane heater, charcoal stove, or other open flame. If you can't find or reach the frozen section, call a licensed plumber.
Step 4: Light, Food and Information
Winter outages are long and dark. Sunset comes early, so in much of the country you can spend 14 hours or more in the dark.
Light: Use flashlights and headlamps, not candles, wherever you can, to cut fire risk. A Rothco Cree LED Headlamp keeps both hands free for cooking, caring for kids, or checking pipes in a crawl space. Keep spare batteries next to each light.
Food: Keep the fridge and freezer closed. FoodSafety.gov says a closed refrigerator keeps food safe for about 4 hours, and a full freezer holds its temperature for about 48 hours (24 if half full). Don't rely on putting food outside in the snow. Sun and shifting temperatures can thaw it, and animals can get into it.
Information: Ready.gov recommends signing up for your community's alert system and keeping a battery-powered radio for NOAA Weather Radio and Emergency Alert System messages. Keep phones and power banks charged before storms arrive.
For a full checklist of outage basics, see our guide to building a power outage kit that works at home. If you're doing your fall kit check this weekend, our daylight saving time checklist covers batteries, alarms and food dates.
Keep reading: pick a light you can count on with Best Flashlight for Emergencies: How to Choose One. For no-cook food, see How Long Does Canned Food Last? and How Long Do Emergency Ration Bars Last?.
Your Winter Outage Checklist
Do these before the first storm:
Test smoke and CO alarms, and add battery-backup CO detectors near every sleeping area
Have your furnace, chimney and flue inspected
Choose your warm room and gather blankets, emergency blankets and warm layers for everyone
Stock at least several days of no-cook food and water for every person and pet
Put a headlamp or flashlight with spare batteries in every bedroom
Insulate exposed pipes, drain outdoor faucets, and learn where your main water shutoff is
Plan generator placement outside, at least 20 feet from doors, windows and vents
Sign up for local alerts and find your nearest warming center
Check on older neighbors and relatives, and make a plan to reach them
FAQ
How long can a house stay warm without power in winter?
It depends on how well your home is insulated, how cold it is outside, and how many people are inside. Closing off one room, covering windows and doorways, and keeping everyone together slows heat loss a lot. Watch an indoor thermometer, and leave for a warming center or another home if it keeps dropping.
Is it safe to use a gas stove for heat during a power outage?
No. The CDC and Ready.gov both say never to heat your home with a gas oven or stovetop. It can cause carbon monoxide poisoning, fires and burns.
Does a warmer-than-average winter mean fewer outages?
Not necessarily. NOAA's outlook is about seasonal averages, and it doesn't forecast snowfall or individual storms. A very strong El Niño favors stormier weather across the South, and ice and wind storms can cut power even when the season is mild overall.
Should I drip my faucets during a winter outage?
Yes, for faucets served by exposed pipes. The Red Cross says even a trickle of running water helps keep pipes from freezing. Open the cabinet doors under sinks, too.
What should I do if my CO alarm goes off?
Get everyone, including pets, outside into fresh air right away, then call 911. Don't go back in until emergency responders say it's safe.
What food is best for a winter power outage?
Shelf-stable food that needs no cooking, like canned goods you can eat cold, ration bars, nut butter and crackers. Keep the fridge and freezer closed: FoodSafety.gov says a closed refrigerator keeps food safe for about 4 hours and a full freezer holds its temperature for about 48 hours. Our canned food shelf life chart shows how long cans keep.
The Bottom Line
NOAA's outlook isn't a reason to panic. It's a heads-up. A very strong El Niño favors a stormier winter across the South and East, and any winter can bring a multi-day outage. If you get your warm room ready, take carbon monoxide seriously, and protect your pipes now, a dark, cold week becomes something you can handle. Start with the checklist above, one item a night, and you'll be ready before the first storm hits.
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